Why Avoiding Layoffs Does Not Make Apple The Finest Huge Tech Wager

Flat Lay of different apple products on a grey background.

Shahid Jamil

This text was initially printed for members of Leads From Gurus on January 23.

Apple Inc. (NASDAQ:AAPL) has averted layoffs amid the present financial downturn that has compelled a lot of its rivals to slash their workforce large

Tech layoffs since 2022 January


Biggest tech layoffs since the beginning of the pandemic


Firm Workforce Enlargement
Apple 20%
Alphabet 57%
Meta Platforms 94%
Microsoft 53%

Revenue growth comparison between Apple and other big tech companies


Mass layoffs by reason categories

U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Performance comparison of Apple stock and other big tech stocks (as of Jan. 23)


The Margin: Southwest provides extra flights for the Tremendous Bowl from Philadelphia to Phoenix

The Philadelphia Eagles simply clinched one other Tremendous Bowl bid, their second up to now 5 years.

Followers of “The Birds” could also be seeking to fly west to observe their group compete in opposition to the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs in Tremendous Bowl LVII in Phoenix on Feb. 12, and Southwest LUV, -1.55% is seeking to oblige.

After the Eagles received to make it to the Tremendous Bowl, Southwest introduced extra nonstop flights from the Philadelphia space to Phoenix, in addition to just a few extra flights from Kansas Metropolis to Phoenix. The whole variety of nonstop flights again to these cities after the sport have been additionally elevated, the corporate says.

In line with AAA, costs for flights from Philadelphia to Phoenix between now and the Tremendous Bowl will range from $500 to $1,000, relying on the airline, day of journey and time.

Tickets to attend the sport between the Eagles and the Kansas Metropolis Chiefs are shaping as much as be costly too. In line with TicketIQ, the common record worth on the secondary market is $9,825, the third highest since 2010.

Costs for each tickets and flights might change within the almost two weeks earlier than the Tremendous Bowl.

See additionally: Excellent news for Tremendous Bowl social gathering hosts — Rooster-wing costs are down 22%

Final month, Southwest had a flight-booking debacle in the course of the peak of vacation journey season when it canceled 1000’s of journeys over points surrounding an antiquated crew-scheduling software program, leaders of unions representing Southwest pilots and flight attendants say. The USA Transportation Division is probing Southwest Airways in wake of its vacation meltdown.

Shares of Southwest Airways Co. are down 0.34% throughout Monday buying and selling. The corporate’s inventory is down 19.31% over the previous yr, in contrast with a 10.57% drop for the S&P 500 SPX, -0.92% over the identical interval.

Federal Reserve: Again To 25bp Hikes As Slowdown Fears Mount

Currency and Exchange Stock Chart for Finance and Economy Display


By James Knightley, Padhraic Garvey, CFA and Chris Turner

25bp with extra nonetheless to come back

Having raised the Fed funds goal vary by 425bp in 2022, together with 75bp and 50bp strikes, expectations are firmly centred on the Federal Reserve opting

Scenarios for the Federal Reserve meeting


Basic Electrical: Buyers Have Been Warned

General Electric Global Operations Center. Financial troubles have forced GE to seek buyers for many of its divisions.


Basic Electrical (NYSE:GE) is a extremely cyclical industrial conglomerate with important revenue danger throughout an financial downturn, which isn’t mirrored within the firm’s FCF/earnings a number of.

Even if Basic Electrical reported robust earnings within the fourth quarter


Earnings (Basic Electrical)

2022 Operating Segments Results

2022 Working Segments Outcomes (Basic Electrical)

2022 Free Cash Flow

2022 Free Money Move (Basic Electrical)

Earnings Estimate

Earnings Estimate (Yahoo Finance)

Relative Strength Index

Relative Energy Index (Stockcharts.com)

Have to Know: Buyers beware. It’s the market relationship with knowledge that will pivot when the Fed pauses, says Citi.

Shares on Friday seemed able to retreat a smidgeon as Wall Road closes out the week.

That’s OK, the S&P 500 SPX is already up 5.75% in 2023, helped by the assumption that slowing financial system and softening inflation will enable the Federal Reserve to be much less aggressive in elevating borrowing prices.

This has meant that considerably poor financial knowledge is usually effectively acquired by fairness traders. (Catastrophically unhealthy financial information could also be a distinct matter!).

That correlation could also be put to the take a look at once more subsequent week when the Fed is predicted to ship a 25 foundation level charge hike, adopted by a press convention with Chairman Jay Powell.

However inventory bulls who hope to search out alerts the central financial institution will quickly cease tightening coverage might want to suppose once more. That’s the warning from Citi’s quantitative international macro strategist Alex Saunders, who says traders should brace for a shift in market responses.

“U.S. fairness market response to financial surprises proper now could be that unhealthy information is sweet for markets. This is likely one of the finest regimes for U.S. equities. This correlation between information circulation and fairness markets is typical throughout mountain climbing cycles,” he says.

Saunders studied Citi’s financial shock index and its relationship to inventory market motion, and overlaid that with the financial coverage cycle.

The chart beneath reveals the imply returns in 4 regimes. The perfect regime, says Saunders, is with optimistic financial surprises, and a optimistic fairness/shock correlation, which occurs 34% of the time.

Supply: Citi.

The worst end result is when the market will get good financial information and fairness/bond correlations are adverse, which occurs 18% of the time.

Nevertheless: “The present studying on Citi’s financial surprises index is -15 and the correlation between surprises and returns is adverse – markets have tended to react positively to a weaker shock index.”

The seemingly motive is equities search aid from the top of mountain climbing cycles.

However this relation tends to flip as soon as the Fed goes on maintain, “Because the mountain climbing cycle matures, the correlation between financial surprises and U.S. fairness market efficiency may flip optimistic. On this case, weak financial knowledge from a possible 2H U.S. recession would weigh on markets”.

Supply: Citi.

Such a transition to a regime the place unhealthy information is unhealthy information “might be the signal that the bear market rally is fading -– for instance, the sell-off after weak retail gross sales numbers earlier this month”.

The truth is, Saunders can see the market portray itself right into a nook.

“Moreover, a string of optimistic financial releases would additionally give us pause in equities, because the Fed may see this as a inexperienced mild to tighten monetary circumstances additional,” he says.

“The slender path for equities is both to proceed buying and selling unhealthy information in hope of a Fed pivot, or for recession fears to fully recede, inflation to proceed falling, and good financial information to turn into good market information once more,” he concludes.

(For extra on how telling financial surprises will be see The Chart, beneath).


Inventory futures ES00 YM00 are tilting south, led by Nasdaq-100 futures NQ00 after poorly-received outcomes from Intel. The 10-year Treasury yield BX:TMUBMUSD10Y is up 5 foundation factors to three.547%, whereas the greenback DXY is flat, gold GC00 is softer and crude CL is perkier, up 1.2% to $81.98 a barrel.

For extra market updates plus actionable commerce concepts for shares, choices and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Enterprise Day by day.

The thrill

Intel INTC shares are down practically 10% in premarket motion after the chip maker late Thursday reported– a giant fourth-quarter miss, and a dark forecast.

Be careful at 8:30 a.m. Jap for the PCE value index report. It’s the Fed’s most well-liked inflation measure and is prone to have an effect on the central financial institution’s considering because it prepares to ship its financial coverage resolution subsequent Wednesday.

Additionally to return on Friday: actual disposable incomes and actual client spending for December might be launched at 8:30 a.m., adopted at 10 a.m. by the College of Michigan client sentiment index alongside 1-year and 5-year inflation expectations, all for January. December pending residence gross sales are due at 10 a.m. All instances Jap.

The sell-off in shares of corporations linked to Gautam Adani, Asia’s richest man, continued on Friday after hedge fund titan Invoice Ackman lent his assist to Hindenburg Analysis, the quick vendor who this week revealed a important report into the Adani empire’s actions.

American Categorical AXP inventory is up 5% premarket after delivering better-than-expected outcomes and boosting the dividend.

Shares in Hasbro HAS are down practically 4% after the toy maker mentioned it plans to put off about 15% of its workforce and warned Wall Road of a loss and income drop after a disappointing vacation season.

Chevron’s inventory CVX is down 1% after the oil and gasoline large missed fourth-quarter revenue expectations, whereas income rose above forecasts.

Better of the online

How Russia’s warfare on Ukraine modified the worldwide oil commerce.

Addressing the “Smoothie Delusion”: huge tech slashes workplace perks.

Meet the newest housing-crisis scapegoat.

The chart

German shares have been doing effectively of late. The DAX 40 was up 14.6% over the previous three months at Thursday’s shut, whereas the S&P 500 has gained 6.6%.. The chart beneath from Deutsche Financial institution partly explains the distinction. Sliding vitality prices in Europe over the winter, and extra not too long ago the opening up of China’s financial system, have made German enterprise leaders extra optimistic, feeding into financial knowledge.

It’s surprises that the majority transfer markets. And the Eurozone knowledge has been extra positively stunning than these within the U.S.

“The massive query for 2023 is whether or not the momentum in Europe and China and the current loosening of world monetary circumstances might help offset some very worrying current U.S. knowledge. It’s potential that the worldwide financial system is normalising from the shock of the Ukraine warfare and China’s zero COVID coverage and that this may assist the U.S. within the close to time period,” mentioned Deutsche strategist Jim Reid.

Supply: Deutsche Financial institution.

Prime tickers

Right here had been essentially the most energetic stock-market tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Jap.

Random reads

Gold coated mummy.

Bear takes 400 selfies.

Lottery winner blew $50 million in simply Eight years.

Have to Know begins early and is up to date till the opening bell, however enroll right here to get it delivered as soon as to your e mail field. The emailed model might be despatched out at about 7:30 a.m. Jap.

Take heed to the Greatest New Concepts in Cash podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton

LendingClub Company 2022 This autumn – Outcomes – Earnings Name Presentation

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: Asian People felt cultural satisfaction in Monterey Park. Now they are saying a mass capturing robbed them of its particular place of their heritage.

The mass capturing in Monterey Park, Calif., shocked the Asian-American neighborhood. 

Not solely as a result of the capturing occurred on Lunar New Yr’s Eve, but in addition as a result of it occurred in Monterey Park, a predominantly Asian metropolis that holds a particular place within the Asian-American panorama. 

On Saturday evening, a gunman opened hearth at a celebration contained in the…

Must Know: Don’t let the ‘bear market home of mirrors’ idiot you, Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson warns of the inventory market

Inventory futures are treading water forward of an essential week for earnings, with the highlight on updates from the tech house, which has been shedding 1000’s of staff.

Amongst these not anticipating excellent news within the earnings pipeline is Morgan Stanley’s chief U.S. fairness strategist Mike Wilson, who in our name of the day says buyers must watch out for the “bear market corridor of mirrors.”

A reasonably upbeat begin for shares to the 12 months — the S&P 500 SPX is up over 3% this 12 months, and the beaten-down Ark Innovation ETF ARKK has jumped 17% — just isn’t tempting him. “Suffice it to say, we’re not biting on this current rally as a result of our work and course of are so convincingly bearish on earnings,” mentioned Wilson.

He notes how the early 2023 rally has been led by “low-quality and closely shorted shares” and a powerful shift to cyclicals versus defensives. “This cyclical rotation particularly is convincing buyers that they’re lacking the underside and should reposition,” he informed shoppers in a Sunday notice.

However he warns that bear markets can idiot a lot of buyers earlier than all is claimed and completed, they usually should maintain trusting their very own processes and ignore the noise. “The ultimate phases of the bear market are at all times the trickiest and we have now been on excessive alert for such head fakes, just like the rally from October to December we anticipated and traded,” Wilson mentioned.

After a “very difficult 2022, many buyers are nonetheless bearish essentially, however query whether or not destructive fundamentals have already been priced into shares,” he says. “Our view has not modified as we count on the trail of earnings within the U.S. to disappoint each consensus expectations and present valuations.”

One space of concern for him is that the hole between the financial institution’s earnings outlook and ahead estimates is “as extensive because it’s ever been. The final two occasions our mannequin was this far under consensus the S&P 500 fell by 34% and 49%,” he mentioned.

Morgan Stanley

What Wilson expects is an “imminent” earnings recession, and with that margin erosion. That may come as prices have been rising quicker than gross sales, and income has been unexpectedly slowing down for firms, he mentioned.

And whereas we aren’t formally in a recession, the fallout for firms is already there — falling gross sales driving stock bloat and fewer productive head depend.

Saying all that, Wilson says they “welcome the sentiment and positioning over the previous few weeks as a essential situation for the final stage of this bear market to play out.”

The chief fairness strategist, who appropriately predicted the path of the 2022 stock-market selloff, warned firstly of the 12 months {that a} recession shock this 12 months might drive one other 22% drop for markets. In relation to Wall Road’s predictions for the S&P 500 this 12 months, Wilson is on the decrease finish with a name for the index to complete at 3,900.

U.S. Treasurys at ‘important level’: Shares, bonds correlation shifts as fixed-income market flashes recession warning

The markets

Inventory futures ES00 YM00 NQ00 are leaning south, whereas there’s little motion forTreasury bonds BX:TMUBMUSD10Y BX:TMUBMUSD02Y both, however weak spot for the greenback DXY. A lot of Asia is shut — China markets will likely be closed all week for the Lunar New 12 months’s holidays. The Nikkei 225 index JP:NIK gained.

Bitcoin BTCUSD topped $23,00zero over the weekend, a stage it hasn’t seen since September regardless of final week’s Chapter 11 chapter submitting by Genesis World Capital. 

For extra market updates plus actionable commerce concepts for shares, choices and crypto, subscribe to MarketDiem by Investor’s Enterprise Day by day. And observe MarketWatch’s stay weblog for extra market updates.

The thrill

Evoquoa inventory AQUA is up 17% in premarket buying and selling after the water therapy firm acquired a $7.5 billion supply from rival Xylem XYL, whose shares are down 9.2%.

Prepare for some massive tech names to report this week — Microsoft MSFT, 3M MMM and Texas Devices on Tuesday, Tesla TSLA and IBM IBM on Wednesday and Intel INTC on Thursday. GE GE, Johnson & Johnson JNJ, 3M MMM, Boeing BA, McDonald’s MCD, Visa V, Chevron CVX and AmEx AXP may also report.

Genius Group, the Singapore-based training expertise firm whose shares have soared 800% this 12 months, has set steering for 2023, saying it sees income 27% larger than 2022 and 30% larger scholar numbers.

Earnings Watch: Microsoft, Tesla and Intel are about to face the doubters

Spotify Know-how SPOT added to a wave of tech layoffs, with the music streamer asserting plans to chop 6% of its workforce.

And: Massive Tech layoffs usually are not as massive as they seem at first look

Main financial indicators are due at 10 a.m.

Learn: A recession is coming, economists say. Some even suppose it’s already right here

Ken Griffin’s U.S. hedge fund Citadel made a report $16 billion final 12 months (publish charges) final 12 months, in accordance with this estimate.

Better of the online

Practically rich sufficient to purchase the White Home. That’s incoming Biden chief of employees Jeffrey Zients

A 70% tax on the rich ought to even up the inequality hole, says Nobel-prize profitable economist Joseph Stiglitz.

Pandemic-era free lunches are ending for a lot of households, who nonetheless desperately want them

Brazil and Argentina are reportedly laying the groundwork for a standard forex (subscription required)

The chart

“An astounding 40% of Russell 2000 firms have been unprofitable final 12 months. It’s a must to surprise what’s going to occur to those firms in a world the place larger rates of interest could imply better rationing of capital vs the freely and cheaply out there flood of funding of many of the previous decade,” says Callum Thomas, head of analysis at Topdown Charts, offering the under chart from @MichealAArouet


“Throw in a potential international recession and issues might get ugly. No surprise fund managers are rotating out of U.S. equities,” he mentioned, pointing to this Financial institution of America chart:

Financial institution of America/@Callum_Thomas

The tickers

These have been the top-searched tickers on MarketWatch as of 6 a.m. Japanese:

Ticker Safety identify
TSLA Tesla
BBBY Mattress Bathtub & Past
GME GameStop
GNS Genius Group
HLBZ Helbiz
AMC AMC Leisure
MULN Mullen Automotive
AAPL Apple
APE AMC Leisure Holdings most popular shares
Random reads

“Mattress Mack” misplaced $2 million on the Dallas Cowboys and that’s not even his greatest guess.

Senior aide to Japan’s prime minister apologies for sticking his arms in his pockets throughout a DC journey, after getting informed off by his mother.

Scorching canine crime on the Australian Open

Must Know begins early and is up to date till the opening bell, however join right here to get it delivered as soon as to your e mail field. The emailed model will likely be despatched out at about 7:30 a.m. Japanese.

Hearken to the Greatest New Concepts in Cash podcast with MarketWatch reporter Charles Passy and economist Stephanie Kelton.

MDA Breakout Shares Week 4 – January 2023: Excessive-Frequency Gainers To Give You An Edge

Sandy beach with palm trees and a sailing boat

lucky-photographer/iStock through Getty Photographs


The Weekly Breakout Forecast continues my doctoral analysis evaluation on MDA breakout picks over greater than Eight years. This excessive frequency breakout subset of the completely different portfolios I often analyze has now reached 290 weeks

Long Term Portfolio gains YTD


Momentum Gauge Stoplight signals


Daily Momentum Gauges


Weekly Breakout returns YTD and 2022


Annual minimal weekly MDA returns


BZUN - Baozun Inc. - Stock Price Chart


BZUN Stock Rover report


CECO - CECO Environmental Corp. - Stock Price Chart


CECO Stock Rover report


Image Firm Present % return from choice Week
CAT Caterpillar, Inc. -3.39%
(HD) Dwelling Depot -4.89%
(NKE) Nike Inc. +2.88%
(V) Visa Inc. +4.42%
BA Boeing Firm +8.54%
(JPM) JPMorgan Chase & Co. +0.73%
CAT Caterpillar, Inc. +5.31%
(CVX) Chevron Company +4.09%
(BA) Boeing +11.94%
(CAT) Caterpillar Inc. +7.30%

Finviz Chart DIS


MDA Frequency Breakout charts


MDA Frequency Breakout charts


Portfolio returns YTD


Portfolio returns 2022


J.B. Hunt: Present Slowdown Presents A Good Shopping for Alternative

Bull and bear market


Funding Thesis

J.B. Hunt (NASDAQ:JBHT) is experiencing a quantity decline throughout its enterprise on account of a weakening financial system and the stock destocking at its clients. Whereas the macroeconomic surroundings is hard, JBHT has a superb historical past of executing properly

JBHT’s historical sales data

JBHT’s historic gross sales information (Firm information, GS Analytics Analysis)

JBHT’s operating ratio and operating ratio excluding higher casualty expense

JBHT’s working ratio and working ratio excluding larger casualty expense (Firm information, GS Analytics Analysis)